Oscars 2018: Our Final Predictions | Vanity Fair

oscars best picture nominees 2018

The 90th Academy Awards ceremony, presented by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS), will honor the best films of 2017 and will take place at the Dolby Theatre in Hollywood, Los Angeles, California at 5:00 p.m. PST on March 4, 2018. During the ceremony, AMPAS will present Academy Awards ...
oscars-2018-nominations-best-picture. Sony Pictures Classics; Focus Features; Moviestore Collection/REX/Shutterstock; Moviestore/REX/Shutterstock; A24; 20th Century Fox; Fox Searchlight; Mike Nelson / Epa/REX/Shutterstock. “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri” got a big boost in the race for.
Here's my estimation of the nine nominees' individual chances of winning, ranked from least to most likely to win. 9) Darkest Hour. 8) The Post. 7) Call Me by Your Name. 6) Phantom Thread. 5) Lady Bird. 4) Dunkirk. 3) Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri. 2) Get Out.

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Here's my estimation of the nine nominees' individual chances of winning, ranked from least to most likely to win. 9) Darkest Hour. 8) The Post. 7) Call Me by Your Name. 6) Phantom Thread. 5) Lady Bird. 4) Dunkirk. 3) Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri. 2) Get Out.
At long last, the Oscar nominations have finally arrived, and with their arrival comes the complete upheaval of my Best Picture predictions. Well, not entirely, but if you've been keeping tabs over the last couple of months as I've updated this piece, you've seen a variety of films move in and out of a ...
February 27, 2018 4:30AM. oscars-2018-nominations-best-picture. Sony Pictures Classics; Focus Features; Moviestore Collection/REX/Shutterstock; Moviestore/REX/Shutterstock; A24; 20th Century Fox; Fox Searchlight; Mike Nelson / Epa/REX/Shutterstock. “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri” just.
oscars-2018-nominations-best-picture. Sony Pictures Classics; Focus Features; Moviestore Collection/REX/Shutterstock; Moviestore/REX/Shutterstock; A24; 20th Century Fox; Fox Searchlight; Mike Nelson / Epa/REX/Shutterstock. “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri” got a big boost in the race for.

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Vanity Fair gives our best guess at who will win in every category—and explains why we think Get Out could go all the way.
The long and winding road that is awards season will finally come to an end March 4, when the —hosted, for the second year in a row, by Jimmy Kimmel—anoint a new class of winners.
But while some of those victors seem pre-ordained—all four acting categories, for example, appear to be pretty much sewn up already—others are much less certain, including the biggest prize of all: best picture.
So, who will walk away with Oscar gold on Sunday night?
Below, our crack team of experts gives our best guesses in every category—including the shorts.
Best Picture Call Me by Your Name Darkest Hour Dunkirk Get Out Lady Bird Phantom Thread The Post The Shape of Water Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri In a year when most of the big awards appear to be locked in, best picture—the biggest prize of all—is refreshingly up in the air.
Conventional wisdom holds that there are only five films with a real chance of winning: Dunkirk, Get Out, Lady Bird, The Shape of Water, and Three Billboards.
Given its successful run throughout awards season, Three Billboards would be the favorite here, were it not for the fact that its director, Martin McDonagh, was snubbed in the best-director category.
Since Guillermo del Toro is almost certain to win best director, many games in 2018 japan arcade popular most think The Shape of Water will win here, too—but then, oscars best picture nominees 2018 people thought La La Land would beat Moonlight, and The Revenant would beat Spotlight.
Our analysis of voter sentiment, however, makes us think Get Out could pull off an upset.
The bad news is that another beloved, idiosyncratic, commercial auteur, Guillermo del Toro, appears to have the edge this year.
There are still people gunning for Saoirse Ronan.
And at least one of us left an early screening of The Post thinking that this could be the year Meryl Streep adds oscars best picture nominees 2018 another statuette to her collection.
But all came before Frances McDormand won every precursor award under the sun for her fierce, unapologetic, and frequently unsettling performance as the very angry, very resourceful mother of a murdered teenager.
Best Actor Timothée Chalamet, Call Me by Your Name Daniel Day-Lewis, Phantom Thread Daniel Kaluuya, Get Out Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour Denzel Washington, Roman J.
The youngest best actor winner in history is Adrien Brody, who was 29 when he won for The Pianist—seven years older than Chalamet is now.
For a time, Chalamet seemed like a potential dark-horse spoiler, but the best picture nomination for Darkest Hour—and the curious failure of thewhich were dismissed in court, to affect his campaign—have made that seem virtually impossible.
He shows no signs of faltering now.
Best Supporting Actress Mary J.
Blige, Mudbound Allison Janney, I, Tonya Lesley Manville, Phantom Thread Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird Octavia Spencer, The Shape of Water For a time this seemed like a link battle, with television and theater veteran Laurie Metcalf, nominated for playing a complicated but loving mother to a willful daughter in Lady Bird, facing off against Allison Janney, nominated for playing a complicated and never-loving mother to a willful daughter in I, Tonya.
In theory, this should still be a close race: Lady Bird is a best picture nominee; I, Tonya is a surprising best editing nominee; and both movies have gained pop culture traction.
Some Lady Bird believers may stand by Metcalf, but Janney has spent months practicing her inevitable Oscar speech.
Best Supporting Actor Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project Woody Harrelson, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri Richard Jenkins, The Shape of Water Christopher Plummer, All the Money in the World Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri For a long while, it looked like Willem Dafoe had this in the bag for his lovable, simple, and shaggy work in the critically adored The Florida Project.
Best Original Screenplay Emily V.
Gordon and Kumail Nanjiani, The Big Sick Jordan Peele, Get Out Greta Gerwig, Lady Bird Guillermo del Toro and Vanessa Taylor, The Shape of Water Martin McDonagh, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri There are two scripts that really got people talking this year, and this award should go to the writer of one of them.
Will it be Martin More info, whose Three Billboards screenplay took a blue-hot blowtorch to some of the most incendiary topics in American life racism, police brutality, criminal justice, the abuse of women —and wound up singing its author, after a handful of critics for its insensitivity to racial dynamics in the U.
Or will it be Jordan Peele, who smuggled a brutal critique of American racism and liberal pseudo-support into the mainstream by wrapping it in the audience-friendly conventions of horror.
Best Adapted Screenplay James Ivory, Call Me by Your Name Scott Neustadter and Michael H.
Beyond that, this category contains a funny olio of broad biopic comedy, superhero drama, gambling thriller, and hefty literary adaptation.
Remember it, because Oscar voters surely will.
Featuring a career-making performance by the trans actress Daniela Vega, A Fantastic Woman is the kind of film that can change the way we see an entire, misunderstood class of people—and for that reason, we give it an edge over the very worthy competition.
That makes her the sentimental favorite here—and when have the Oscars ever shied away from sentiment?
Perhaps the last awards-season film that relied on music to this extent was The Artist, which walked away with both best original score and best picture; though The Shape of Water faces stiff competition, especially from first-time Oscar nominee Jonny Greenwood oscars best picture nominees 2018 Phantom Thread and perpetual nominee Hans Zimmer for his experimental Dunkirk scoreexpect it to pull off the same trick and underwater, at that.
Those are credentials that are hard to argue with.
Best Sound Editing Baby Driver Blade Runner 2049 Dunkirk The Shape of Water Star Wars: The Last Jedi Dunkirk could well have both sound categories in the bag, though this one seems a surer thing than sound mixing.
But no, talk like that is silly; Dunkirk is the serious sort of capital-f Film that wins bwin belussi Oscars by the score, and sound editing should be no different.
But sound mixing sometimes diverges for its sibling to honor a musical, being the category that honors not just how the sounds are made, but how they are layered together—like how, say, a classic pop song might work with the vrooms and slams of a car-chase scene and character dialogue all at once.
Baby Driver is up against a heavy hitter in Dunkirk, but we think it has just enough extra pizazz to put it over the edge.
Best Cinematography Blade Runner 2049 Darkest Hour Dunkirk Mudbound The Shape of Water There are two options for making history in this category.
But there is another staggering historical oversight at play this year that will probably be rectified: Roger Deakins, nominated for the 14th time for Blade Runner 2049, will finally.
Hopefully Morrison and her fellow female cinematographers are not at the beginning of another one.
Expect Tsuji to waltz away with this one.
Best Visual Effects Blade Runner 2049 Guardians of the Galaxy: Vol.
That trilogy was The Lord of the Rings, which won best picture for its third installment—and there are plenty of people at Weta Digital read more are hoping history can repeat itself here with War for the Planet of the Apes.
With no best picture nominees in the mix this time and no more chances to give Caesar his due, the Academy has no reason not to go for Apes at last.
The pencil drawn animation is exquisite and done by Glen Keane, a Disney animation veteran whom oscars best picture nominees 2018 animators might be eager to see with a career tribute.
Woody Harrelson and Sam Rockwell, at the sag Awards Post-Show Gala, January 21.
Brooklynn Prince and Willem Dafoe, at the bafta Tea Party, January 6.
Daniel Kaluuya, Mary J.
Blige, and Dee Rees, at the bafta Tea Party, January 6.
Armie Hammer, Saoirse Ronan, and Timothée Chalamet, at the Palm Springs International Film Festival, January 2.
Holly Hunter, at the Palm Springs International Film Festival, January magnificent euromat 2018 confirm />Meryl Streep, Tom Hanks, and Steven Spielberg, at the Palm Springs International Film Festival, January 4.
Armie Hammer, Saoirse Ronan, and Timothée Chalamet, at the Palm Springs International Film Festival, January 2.
Hillary Busis is the Hollywood editor at VanityFair.
Previously, she was an editor at Mashable and at Entertainment Weekly.
She lives in Brooklyn, just like everyone else.
Richard Lawson is a columnist for Vanity Fair's Hollywood, reviewing film and television and covering entertainment news and gossip.
He lives in New York City.
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